The Coming Economic Apocalypse: Harlem Is Screwed, But So Is Everyone Else
The Harlemite cats, dogs and people I know have been discussing the possible effects of the recent economic meltdown on our nabe, and I'm interested to find out what others think this situation holds for us. To kick things off, I'll do a little recap of how we got here, look at some possibilities of what is to come, and lay out a couple of strategies. Then, it's up to you to fire away.
Where We Are:
As a country, we find ourselves in an uncertain job market wondering if we will be in our home next year with debt pouring out of every bodily orifice. So how did we get here? The answer is fairly simple.
We swapped out production and saving for consumption and financing. Basically, we didn't make many things or save much money, but we bought a lot of stuff, and did so with easy credit. A good portion of the credit came from home values, and home values increased because the credit was easy.
It sounds like a nice existence, but it can't last forever. At some point the credit came due, and when it did, a bunch of people found themselves wondering what happened as they stood outside of a Midtown office building gripping a few personal possessions in a cardboard box, classing up the bum scene with their work attire.
This was definitely a buzz kill, but we could have lived thought it. That is one thing a recession can do, correct the market. It would not be great, but over time Americans would cut back on financed purchases and begin to rebuild savings. It's kind of like waking up on Sunday morning with a killer hang over from Saturday night. You've lost some brain cells, they are not coming back, but if you suck it up and resign Sunday to recuperation, you can be back kicking ass when it counts on Monday morning.
However, the powers that be in Washington didn't want the party to end. They dumped what is at this point about $7.6 trillion of your tax dollars into banks and other places that made bad decisions with the hopes people would continue making more bad decisions, and this would somehow work. (For those of us with a home we can afford at a fixed interest rate and no credit card debt, this is really irritating.) Instead of toughing it out, they did the financial equivalent of shot-gunning a bottle of Jack Daniel's on Sunday morning. Sure, it brings back the feeling of Saturday night, but this kind of behavior inevitably ends up with someone dead in a cheap Vegas place after a mostly sexless relationship with a hooker. And that seems to be where we are heading.
Where We Might Go:
So does this affect Harlem? Of course. Much of the recent changes in Harlem were due to rising real estate values. This fueled everything from the increase in rents and new developments to the cleaner streets, lower crime, and growing selection of amenities. With tightening credit markets and lower home values, we can expect these things to change. With the bailout shenanigans in Washington, we are probably in for something really, really bad.
Adding debt worth about half of our nation's GDP to the public tax burden will be ugly. The middle class can be expected to shoulder a lot of this, because that always happens. With more of our tax dollars going to debt finance, we will see reduced spending on infrastructure and cut backs in services. With more of our income going to taxes, we will see fewer people able to live a middle class life. We may see building construction stop unfinished, and plenty of neighborhood amenities shut down.
Will Harlem be a bit worse off than other places? Maybe, but it will be the difference between someone punching you in the stomach, knocking you down, and urinating on your face versus someone punching you in the stomach, knocking you down, and urinating on your face after eating asparagus.
You don't have to go that far back in time to see that other nabes were not always so glamorous. The Lower East Side really still is one big drug corner. SoHo is what it is because not long ago starving artists moved into bleak, unused buildings. The Upper West Side was still West Side Story when most of us were born. We can expect the only nice neighborhood left to be floors two thru 18 of 740 Park Avenue. For those who can't live there, the Upper West Side probably wins the location, location, location pick, as 'kick, snap, spin, kick, stab' is more charming than just 'stab.'
So what about the rest of the country? Here is one possible scenario.
Washington goes on with its IOU printing party to try and keep borrowing its way out of debt. At some point the rest of the world catches on and realizes that buying IOU's from people selling IOU's to cover other IOU's they can't pay back is not a good investment. Our country then turns to printing money to make good on promised funds, devaluing the dollar like mad. Seeing it sink, entities around the globe using the dollar as a reserve currency start dumping it, furthering the devaluation, and inflation takes off to destabilizing extremes.
All hell breaks loose. Cash will be king. The reason for this is we can still withdraw large amounts from banks in clumps of one dollar bills to burn in garbage cans during the cold winter months. People in the street will be heard saying "If only I moved all of my savings to Argentine pesos, I would have so much money." Enterprising Mexican men move their wives and children to the United States and sneak across the border to Mexico so that they can work, send money back here, and give their families a better life.
It's at this point we realize why Hillary Clinton wanted to be Secretary of State. The position has not proved well as a launching pad to the presidency, but but that's because others tried to get elected president. Hillary, having used her diplomatic skills to warm world leaders to recognizing her new rebel government, throws a coup in the mist of the mayhem, and rules with an iron fist as President for Life in a pant suit-based military uniform.
Serious.
Possible Strategies:
Can anything save us from this fate? Shy of some truly extreme event like the death of everyone in third world industrial nations, no. So what should we do? Depending on your personal style, here are some options.
The Optimist: Move to Las Vegas
Befriend a hooker and drink yourself to death.
The Survivalist: Move to Michigan
So why would moving to a state that already has an 8.6 percent unemployment rate be a good idea? I look at it this way; if only one of the big three auto makers fails, that dumps about another 300,000 unemployed, burly people with mechanical know-how and access to the scrap yard that is Detroit onto the streets. It won't be long before these skills are used, and Michigan's people are your Mad Max vehicle-driving overlords. You might as well start making nice now.
The Risk Taker: Leverage yourself to the Nth degree and buy every real asset you possibly can
So if over leveraging ourselves got us into this mess in the first place, why would I encourage doing more? The reason is that the government also got itself way over its head in debt, but unlike us, they have access to the money supply. Some genius will figure that they can get themselves out of this mess by printing more money and stoking massive inflation. In a climate like this, if you have a fixed rate mortgage, the amount you owe plummets. When this passes, you are in a much better position.
Any other ideas?


The little bundle of sass called Harlem BuBu seems to have brought in an offer on her apartment through her blog 




Emotions can run deep over Columbia's proposed Manhattanville expansion, so let's all first inhale deeply, hold it at the top of our lungs, and exhale slowly...
A reader writes:


While perusing Harlem articles today, I came across a subject even more scary than the identical clown costumes Cheryl and I will wear for Halloween- New York City public schools.


Let's see, $7 billion worth of neighborhood development with contract preferences for local talent, the creation of more than 6,000 permanent jobs with benefits in our backyard, cleaning up the waterfront for public enjoyment, and considered assistance for relocating those displaced, all with the creation of a public high school dedicated to math and sciences- sounds like a good thing to complain about, right?
![StNickParkLogoRect[1].jpg](http://www.harlemfur.com/images/StNickParkLogoRect%5B1%5D.jpg)
Following up on the Harlem Book Fair, here are some of the write-ups I found.
In another crushing blow to Bryant Park's summer film regin, this week St. Nicholas Park is host to the 6th Annual Historic Harlem Parks Film Festival. The highlight of the Park’s summer events, films take place at the beautiful 135th street plaza (St. Nicholas Avenue and 135th street).
The 9th Annual
Gina Fuentes Walker and everyone at artHARLEM are inviting artists and neighborhs to the next Artist Get Together this Friday June 22, 6-8 pm.
In about ten minutes, the Mets will face off again against the Cubs in their up, down, up performance at Shea. For those who can't make it in time, but wish to see at least one Met today, Carlos Beltran will be honored this evening at Harlem RBI's annual dinner and auction.
For those in the nabe with conventional children (not small, furry animals), Harlem mom Sarah has a great list of local goings-on. And at least one of those events encourages kids to dress up as small, furry animals. Amazing. Thanks Sarah!
The agenda, roughly, will be:
It was Benny Goodman vs Chick Webb on May 11th, 1937, in what became a classic night of dance and jazz in Harlem's historic Savoy Ballroom. So why let the 70th anniversary of a great battle pass without a little reenactment? Enjoy live music from the Savoy Stompers, a smart dance performance, and a free swing lesson just in case 70 year's time has put a little dust on your dancing shoes. Tickets are $20.
Move over big dogs, the little dogs are moving in. Now that big dogs have a place to call their own in St. Nicholas Park, it's time to carve out an area for little dogs (with big dog personalities). Tasks at hand include fence erecting for the small dog run, cutting and moving fencing for the new corral entrance, landscaping around the new corral entrance, and spreading woodchips in the small dog run.
Never mistaking ourselves as a source for hard news, the Fur is excited when legit outlets validate our
A Harlem Fur tipster passes on a faxed information sheet about a proposed digital community information center (basically a giant TV screen) for 125th St and Adam Clayton Powell Blvd. Apparently, Community Board 10 is actually considering this thing.

With the one year anniversary of Harlem Fur coming up at the end of the month, we are certain that many of you out there are wondering what to get the Fur. Should it be food and water dishes for Cimbi to replace the cereal bowls we currently use? A new kitty bed to replace the one we had to throw out because she peed in it? Another cat dancer of
Greek mythology has it that Aphrodite was born of the water after Cronus cut off Uranus' testicles and threw them into the sea. Ouch.
It's strange how a sensible good time leaves me fumbling for a way to write about it.
Then, the medium news.
What could be better than a huge pile of new wood chips for the St. Nicholas Park dog run? Lets try a new permanent entrance.
As of early Sunday evening, the NYPD is readying Sky Watch on the Southeast corner of Frederick Douglass Circle to, we presume, watch over Saurin Parke Cafe's allotment of H&H bagels. I mean, it had been used to protect Dunkin' Donuts.
It's one of those classic tales of missed connections in New York.
Contributed by Neha Singh Gohil.

Harlem resident and Columbia School of Journalism grad student Neha Singh Gohil passed along her article on wine tastings at Harlem Vintage, the boutique wine shop on Frederick Douglass Boulevard and 121st Street. Neha gave us permission to post the whole article, and we are more than happy to take up that offer.
A very sophisticated new Harlem couple clued Cheryl and I in to a local meat truck when we were talking about neighborhood finds. It sounded pretty cool.
As an addendum to the last post, I ran the New York Road Runner's Midnight Run by myself. I didn't do that by choice.

Michael Edwards of the Jamaican Observer included a Harlem Fur original photo from the opening night at Minton's Playhouse in today's paper.
Harlemites have two reasons to care about today's primary:
Aphrodite Cleaners

Minerva Guerreo of Alianza Dominicana has sent me 9 (now 12) unsolicited emails in the past two days about the August 11th special reception of Oscar Abreu's 'detachment of the ego' at the Alianza Art Gallery. If I get one more email about this I will be creating my own piece of "psycho-expressionism" whereby I detach Minerva's ego, and superego, and id.*
...in Central Park, on Sunday, for 5 miles.
Okay, this is disgusting.
The sad irony of the whole situation is that for weeks I have been watching this same area for whomever is using it as a pissoir. Camera at the ready, every day I come home I have been hoping to catch a couple of good public humiliation shots a la the 
















